The 88 billion ringgit question: Where has it gone? By Raman Letchumanan

Malaysiakini : COMMENT | For the past 16 months since the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government took over, I have been having flashes of nostalgia of my primary school days. This happens particularly when the government talks about science and big data underpinning all their policy prescriptions.

Like most of the ordinary public, I could not make sense of it; but using primary school arithmetic and science, I am enlightened but alarmed at the same time.

A case in point. The government and the banks have been spinning in the media with technical jargon on the loan moratorium benefits. The finance minister boasted “no other country has a comprehensive loan moratorium like this”! Feeling betrayed, the public are now educating each other on how simple and compound interest works. Yes, primary school arithmetic.

Similarly, I want to discuss the pandemic stimulus packages valued at RM530 billion announced by the government thus far, which includes direct fiscal injection of RM88 billion. The public only realised the enormity of this value after the 1MDB scandal broke.

Even when 1MDB was bleeding, like the government is now, billions and millions of direct cash injections were made to the personal bank accounts of the ruling class and their cronies.

Understandably, the cash-strapped public was also expecting a windfall. However, most individuals and businesses are complaining they are only getting pittance. Nobody seems to have a complete picture of where the money actually went. So, where is the disconnect? I will try to unravel this mystery using basic arithmetic.

Before that, let me make sense of the confusing technical terms used. The government says the stimulus relief package consists of two components: direct fiscal injection and others variously referred to as stimulus, relief and/or benefit. I will deal with the former here, which I would call “direct cash aid”, because it is essentially the taxpayers’ money that the government hands out. The latter seems to be like the economic multiplier-effect, where a cash injection generates even more cash or benefits. Let me call this the “multiplier economic benefit”.

The latest Pemulih package consists of RM10 billion direct cash aid, and it presumably generates RM140 billion multiplier economic benefit, and return of 14 times. Really? No wonder investment scams are thriving. The public cannot be faulted for believing in these scams, if a financially prudent government can generate such enormous returns. This multiplier economic benefit of RM442 billion will be explored in another opinion piece, as it is an intriguing story by itself.

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